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Program: HTP North CorridorPackage: All (5)Scenario: BaselineBoundary: A1-A5, B, C, D reported separatelyDataset: EC3 snapshot 2026-07-14Method: EN 17472 / TRACI 2.1
Life cycle cost analysis
Whole life cost over 60 years, the same horizon the carbon assessment uses
Discount rate 3.5% realStudy period 60 yearsBase year 2026Residual value method Straight linePrice basis Q3 2026, ENR CCI
Net present value
$412.8M
Discounted at 3.5% real, base year 2026
Undiscounted total
$492.2M
Sum of the cash flow below, before discounting
Discounting effect
16.1%
Reduction from nominal, driven by the long tail of operating years
Undiscounted cash flow, years 0 to 60
CapitalMaintenanceOperationsRehabilitationReplacementEnd of life
$0M$50M$100M$150M$200MYear 0 · Capital · $24.1MYear 1 · Capital · $74.1MYear 2 · Capital · $90.5MYear 3 · Capital · $77.0MYear 4 · Capital · $42.3MYear 5 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 5 · Operations · $1.8MYear 6 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 6 · Operations · $1.8MYear 7 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 7 · Operations · $1.8MYear 8 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 8 · Operations · $1.8MYear 9 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 9 · Operations · $1.8MYear 10 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 10 · Operations · $1.8MYear 11 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 11 · Operations · $1.8MYear 12 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 12 · Maintenance · $11.9MYear 12 · Operations · $1.8MYear 13 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 13 · Operations · $1.8MYear 14 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 14 · Operations · $1.8MYear 15 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 15 · Operations · $1.8MYear 16 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 16 · Operations · $1.8MYear 17 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 17 · Operations · $1.8MYear 18 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 18 · Operations · $1.8MYear 19 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 19 · Operations · $1.8MYear 20 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 20 · Operations · $1.8MYear 20 · Replacement · $17.1MYear 21 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 21 · Operations · $1.8MYear 22 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 22 · Operations · $1.8MYear 23 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 23 · Operations · $1.8MYear 24 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 24 · Maintenance · $11.9MYear 24 · Operations · $1.8MYear 25 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 25 · Operations · $1.8MYear 26 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 26 · Operations · $1.8MYear 27 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 27 · Operations · $1.8MYear 28 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 28 · Operations · $1.8MYear 29 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 29 · Operations · $1.8MYear 30 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 30 · Operations · $1.8MYear 30 · Rehabilitation · $98.6MYear 31 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 31 · Operations · $1.8MYear 32 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 32 · Operations · $1.8MYear 33 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 33 · Operations · $1.8MYear 34 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 34 · Operations · $1.8MYear 35 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 35 · Operations · $1.8MYear 36 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 36 · Maintenance · $11.9MYear 36 · Operations · $1.8MYear 37 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 37 · Operations · $1.8MYear 38 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 38 · Operations · $1.8MYear 39 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 39 · Operations · $1.8MYear 40 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 40 · Operations · $1.8MYear 40 · Replacement · $25.6MYear 41 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 41 · Operations · $1.8MYear 42 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 42 · Operations · $1.8MYear 43 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 43 · Operations · $1.8MYear 44 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 44 · Operations · $1.8MYear 45 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 45 · Operations · $1.8MYear 45 · Rehabilitation · $32.9MYear 46 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 46 · Operations · $1.8MYear 47 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 47 · Operations · $1.8MYear 48 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 48 · Maintenance · $11.9MYear 48 · Operations · $1.8MYear 49 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 49 · Operations · $1.8MYear 50 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 50 · Operations · $1.8MYear 50 · Replacement · $20.5MYear 51 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 51 · Operations · $1.8MYear 52 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 52 · Operations · $1.8MYear 53 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 53 · Operations · $1.8MYear 54 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 54 · Operations · $1.8MYear 55 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 55 · Operations · $1.8MYear 56 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 56 · Operations · $1.8MYear 57 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 57 · Operations · $1.8MYear 58 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 58 · Operations · $1.8MYear 59 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 59 · Operations · $1.8MYear 60 · Maintenance · $2.0MYear 60 · Operations · $1.8MYear 60 · End of life · $74.1MYear 0Year 10Year 20Year 30Year 40Year 50Year 60
Bars are the cost schedule itself, not an illustration. The residual value credit falls in year 60 and is carried in the table below rather than drawn as a negative bar.
Cumulative cost over the study period
Nominal, undiscountedDiscounted, present value
$0M$250M$500M$750M$1000MHalf the present value by year 30102030405060Year from base year 2026
The gap between the two curves is the discounting effect. Capital dominates the first five years, so half the present value is committed by year 3 even though spending continues for another 57. That is the argument for getting the material decisions right before construction starts.
Present value by cost category
Capital
$286.4M
62.7%
Maintenance
$61.2M
13.4%
Operations
$38.9M
8.5%
Rehabilitation
$42.1M
9.2%
Replacement
$18.7M
4.1%
End of life
$9.4M
2.1%
Residual valuecredit
-$43.9M
9.6%
Net present value
$412.8M
Shares are of gross cost before the residual value credit. Present values are computed from the cash flow schedule, so the chart above and this table are the same numbers.
Sensitivity
NPV delta, $M
-$48.2M+$62.4MDiscount rate, 2.5% to 5.0%-$14.6M+$21.8MMaintenance frequency, -20% to +30%-$11.2M+$17.4MEnergy price escalation, 1% to 4%-$9.4M+$8.1MRehabilitation timing, year 26 to 34-$6.8M+$5.2MResidual value method
Low discount
2.5%
$475.2M
+$62.4M
Central
3.5%
$412.8M
Reference
High discount
5.0%
$364.6M
-$48.2M
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